FORECASTING THE INCOME OF THE RURAL POPULATION OF UKRAINE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ACQUISITION OF CANDIDATE STATUS FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

Abstract

The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical approaches to forecasting the incomes of residents of rural areas in the first post-war years. The main goal of the study was to determine the level of these revenues under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In order to obtain scientifically based results, a vast array of information sources was used, which included the works of practical specialists and scientists, statistical data, and analytical developments of the relevant agencies. This contributed to the objectivity of obtaining results. The urgency of solving the mentioned scientific problem lies in determining the level of these incomes, which is the basic criterion of the level of social development and conditions the planning of relevant social standards and forms the volume of budget expenditures.

The article proposes an appropriate theoretical and methodological approach, which is implemented by an algorithm that includes nine stages. These stages are laid out in a logical sequence with a reflection of the necessary components of the study, in particular, the characteristics of the challenges for Ukraine, clarification of the advantages of Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership, substantiation of the research tools, performing calculations of the incomes of the rural population under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. System, comparison, formalization, economic analysis, synthesis, and econometric forecasting methods are selected. The complex application of this toolkit contributes to obtaining reliable results of forecasting the incomes of the rural population. The population of rural regions of Ukraine was selected as the object of the study, as an important component of the social system of Ukraine. The income of the specified population was chosen as the subject of the study. An assessment of various variants of the "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine is presented.

The article highlights the projected incomes of the rural population, which were obtained using the method of econometric forecasting under two scenarios. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the income level of this population group depends on the realization of the potential of the Ukrainian people. It has been proven that effective implementation of certain reforms that must be implemented in Ukraine on the way to full EU membership is of great importance in achieving a receptive level of these revenues. The results of the study can be used by the central bodies of the executive power of Ukraine, local self-government bodies to assess the mentioned incomes when forming relevant development plans.