FORCE MAJEURE AS AN ANALYTICAL FACTOR OF THE STATISTICAL RESEARCH OF FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINE (EXPORT)

Abstract

Today, the concept of force majeure ("force majeure") is often used in public space. Legal consolidation of force majeure, or circumstances of irresistible force (this is the wording used in the legislation), is contained, in particular, in the Central Committee and the Civil Code of Ukraine.
The Great War in Ukraine made adjustments to the activities of both the state as a whole and entrepreneurs, in particular. The constant threat of missile strikes and the risks of a land invasion of one or another part of the territory do not guarantee the unquestionable fulfillment of obligations under the treaty. Force majeure circumstances are often perceived as the key to resolving various situations: termination of contracts and the application of certain consequences of their termination, avoidance of obligations or liability for their violation.
The article proposes to conduct an analysis of the impact of the war factor on foreign trade in Ukraine in three successive stages:
I. 1992-2013 - the pre-war period:
- the absence of force majeure circumstances in Ukraine during 1992-2008 had a positive effect on the growth of both exports and imports of goods and services, but did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the country's foreign trade balance;
- the global crisis of 2007 (according to the legal framework, financial and economic crises are not force majeure) had a significant negative impact on all foreign trade indicators of Ukraine, namely, the decrease in exports and imports amounted to -37.4% and -45.0 % respectively.
II. 2014-2021 - Russian armed invasion of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) since April
2014:
- the force majeure circumstances of 2014 in Ukraine negatively affected both the export and import of goods and services. However, in general, this did not affect the foreign trade balance - it remained positive. The decline in the volume of foreign trade was short-lived - two years;
- the positive dynamics of the export of goods and services since 2017 did not have a significant impact on the country's foreign trade balance and its dynamics - on the eve of the full-scale invasion, the balance deficit amounted to 4.7 billion USD.
III. Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine from February 24, 2022 to now:
- at the beginning of the current year 2022, the actual volume of exports of goods and services amounted to 6,009.8 million dollars, and experienced a sharp 2.3-fold decrease in March, after the start of a large-scale invasion;
- the trend parameters indicate that despite the large-scale aggression against Ukraine, since April, it has been possible to increase the export of goods and services by an average of 358.54 million dollars, monthly